Discretized Bayesian Induction (BID)

Monographs, Metrological Benchmarks & Interactive Engine Demos — Beta 0.8

Author: Bernard Pargamin Date: November 2026 Format: PDF Documents & Interactive Web Apps

Interactive Engine Demos

Demo 1 • Live Benchmark

🏎️ BIDSim vs. MCMC Drag-Race

Live client-side benchmark race comparing BIDSim against MCMC samplers. Runs 100,000 or 300,000 scenario draws in real time with side-by-side timers and speedup metrics.

🚀 Run Drag-Race
Demo 2 • Edge WASM & JS Engine

⚡ BIDSim WebAssembly & Java Script Interactive Engine

Configure candidate counts and scenario sizes to execute discretized Bayesian induction live in your browser.

⚡ Run Engine Demo

Monograph Series (Papers 1–7)

Paper 1

Discretized Bayesian Induction: Overview of the BID Framework

An Introductory Synthesis of BID Glass-Box Bayesian Inference, Maximum Entropy Priors, scalability and Operational Decision Theory

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Paper 2

The BID2 Engine: Discretized Binomial Bayesian Induction with Maxent Priors

Principle, Metrological Sensitivity Analysis and Popu Parameter Calibration

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Paper 3

Generalization of Discretized Bayesian Induction: From Binary BID2 to Multinomial BIDn and Contextual BIDnC Architectures

Scaling BID2 Inference via Marginal Decomposition, Barycentric Simplex Geometry, TCOB Knowledge Matrices, Focalisation-Fusion Algebra, SICP Structures, and the EvalCout Algorithm

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Paper 4

BIDSim : A Hybrid Discretized Chained Virtual Urns Simulator for High-Dimensional Categorical Bayesian Inference

A Novel High Performance Sampling algorithm in High-Dimensional Multinomial Inference challenging MCMC.

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Paper 5

Discretized Bayesian Induction in Clinical Research: A Glass-Box Paradigm for Trials Analysis, Meta-Analysis and Adaptive Permanent Trials

Escaping P-values, Reconciling Statistical Rigor, Economic Rationality, and Real-Time Patient Safety without Stochastic Black Boxes

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Paper 6

Discretized Bayesian Induction in Polling and Electoral Forecasting

BID : A New Algorithmic Framework for High-Dimensional Political Opinion Analysis, Causal Sample Weighting, and Real-Time Electoral Scenario Simulations

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Paper 7

The Epistemology of Discretized Bayesian Induction

BID’s Epistemological Rupture with Frequentists Dogmas and Continuous Models

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Benchmarks

Benchmark 1

BIDSim vs. Vectorised Cholesky Monte Carlo

Comparative speed, Effective Sample Size (ESS), and autocorrelation performance against vectorised Cholesky decomposition samplers.

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Benchmark 2

BIDSim vs. Laplace-Softmax Approximations

Analysis of tail-probability distortions, boundary collapses, and accuracy comparisons against Gaussian Laplace-Softmax transformations.

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Benchmark 3

BIDSim vs. Laplace-Informed Importance Sampling (LIIS)

Evaluation of Small Data breakdown points, covariance matrix singularity failures, and discrete stability under LIIS.

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Benchmark 4

BIDSim vs. Automatic Differentiation Variational Inference (ADVI)

Comparative evaluation against ADVI / Variational Inference focusing on variance suppression and ELBO convergence plateaus.

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